The new study by the Institute for Mobility Research and the RAND Corporation developed two scenarios to envision mobility in China in 2030. In scenario 1, the Great Reset, market-based reform has led to continued but more modest economic growth, with rather strong increases in vehicle ownership despite widespread constraints on driving in urban areas. In scenario 2, Slowing but Growing, an economic downturn led to a period of lower but still sustained, robust growth. Environmental problems continue to affect the quality of life, and travel demand is growing more slowly than previously expected.

The presented report focuses on longterm scenarios for passenger travel in the U.S., which includes travel by car, transit, domestic air, and intercity rail. Long-term scenarios in this area are multilayered and complex, being influenced by demographics, economics, energy, transportation funding and supply, and technology. How these forces play out over the next 20 years will depend on whether and how policymakers and other decisionmakers sort out and address current and upcoming challenges. Although we cannot know these outcomes in advance, we can apply scenario planning to develop plausible mobility futures that can be used to anticipate and prepare for change.

This publication is only available in German.

This study is only available in German.